Ghana’s cocoa producer price has edged up in March 2026, yet remains far below last year’s peak, according to economist and Bolgatanga Technical University lecturer Prof. Emmanuel Ceaser Ayamba.
Speaking on the Bluewaves Breakfast Show, Ayamba provided a historical review of recent price movements. He noted that cocoa prices peaked at approximately GHC 58,000 per tonne in October 2025 before falling sharply to GHC 41,392 per tonne by February 2026, a decline of about 28.6%. In March 2026 the price recovered modestly to GHC 42,400 per tonne, a 3.4% rise from the February level.
“While the 3.4% increase is a step in the right direction, there remains a gap of approximately 26% compared to the October 2025 peak,” Ayamba said. “This gap represents unrealized potential for market participants.”
He welcomed the government’s decision to raise the producer price, describing it as recognition of the agricultural sector’s importance, but cautioned that inflation could erase the gains. Rising living costs and higher input prices risk leaving farmers worse off in real terms despite the nominal increase.
Ayamba highlighted a significant regional shift: Ghana’s cocoa price is now higher than Côte d’Ivoire’s by roughly 1,216 pips (approximately $3.20 versus $3.00 per bag). Historically, the price gap encouraged smuggling from Ghana into Côte d’Ivoire. The reversal, he argued, should halt outward smuggling and may even attract Ivorian beans into Ghana, potentially boosting Ghana’s formal exports.
The current pricing structure, he added, aligns domestic producer prices more closely with international market movements, giving farmers greater transparency and predictability.
On longer-term challenges, Ayamba stressed the need for Ghana to meet European Union deforestation regulations. Traceability systems are expected to be rolled out between September and December to demonstrate that Ghanaian cocoa is free from links to illegal mining (galamsey) and deforestation. Compliance, he said, is essential to retain access to premium EU markets and support higher prices.
He also pointed to structural improvements at the Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). Under the government that took office in 2025, the organisation has moved from losses toward profitability, reducing reliance on borrowing and improving its attractiveness to investors. This stronger financial position, he argued, should enable better support for farmers through instruments such as seasonal papers, while tighter control over the eight month buying season improves operational oversight.
Banking sector fragility and interest-rate volatility remain concerns, Ayamba noted. He called on the Ministry of Finance to stabilise the financial system so that cocoa financing can operate more effectively.
“The government’s initiative is commendable and moves us in the right direction,” Ayamba concluded. “But more work is needed to restore farmers to the October 2025 peak levels, address the root causes of the earlier price drop, maintain the regional price advantage, ensure EU compliance, and strengthen the banking sector. With these measures, Ghana’s cocoa sector can achieve sustainable growth that benefits farmers and the nation.”
Prof. Emmanuel Ceaser Ayamba specialises in agricultural economics and market analysis at Bolgatanga Technical University.
By Gayheart Abraham
Source:Mybluewavesonoline.com/Maurice Duncan/Bolgatanga
